SharkJumping

Having now fled the mayhem that defines CES, my initial thoughts are that this was an evolutionary show, not a revolutionary one, as some were initially hoping.  The show was full of the usual bigger TVs, more capable phones, and unlimited ways to upgrade your car audio system, but there was not a single device or product that stood out as a "wow" product.   

The overall digital media trend was about new ways and devices to network your home theater experience, with Intel pushing Viiv and Microsoft pushing Windows Media Center, but it still looks too hard to do for an average user, without enough strong devices to deliver the content to the TV.  The rise of the XBox 360/Media Center Extender may address that issue by 2007 since there will be 10M+ of them in the marketplace, but none of the other options seemed like potential large sellers.  And on the portable audio or video side, there was simply nothing to threaten Apple's dominance of that category (even before we see what happens this week at Macworld) - only a compelling subscription offering tied to an great device could do that, and the ones I saw were still not as compelling as a video IPod.  If Sony could get its act together on the PSP, that would be the only device I can see which could compete with the iPod as a great media player, although it's too big to carry in a pocket.

From a buzz perspective, I'd have to give the award to for their Sling Box, which seems to be a pretty easy way to access your video content from a remote device.  I'll pick one up this month to review it, but the demo was compelling, especially since it promises to work with almost any device you have in a home theater system, and it allows you to access the content already stored on your DVR. 

On the business model front, there was a bewildering array of announcements about various ways to buy video content, from paying $2.99 to watch shows before they're broadcast, to paying $.99 to watch them a week later on demand, to paying $1.99 to take them portable, either with an iPod or Portable Media Player.   With the Google Video and Yahoo Go announcements, this set of options will continue to expand, but none of them feel like a consistent and broad proposition tied to exciting hardware, so I believe we'll see another year of Video iPod growth, especially since one of the labels told me they were surprised how many music videos are being sold already on iTunes.

Next is MacWorld and the rumored Apple announcement of a Mac Mini DVR or some type of home theater component.